Money Poll #23: Super Bowl Prediction
I know, I know… The connection between the Super Bowl and personal finance is tenuous at best, but… The NFC and AFC Championship games are in the books, and we now know that it’ll be the Colts vs. the Bears playing for the whole enchilada down in Miami on February 4th. Since this is nominally a ‘Money Poll,’ I’ll just point out the reputed connection between the outcome of the Super Bowl and stock market performance during the following year.
(And yes, there is a poll somewhere down there after all this junk — keep scrolling!)
Briefly, the ‘Super Bowl Indicator‘ holds that whenever a team from the old AFL (now the AFC) wins the Super Bowl, the stock market will experience a down year. But when the winner comes from the old NFL (now the NFC), we’ll experience a bull market. While the Super Bowl Indicator has been historically quite accurate, with a 90% success rate in the first 31 years of the Super Bowl, it’s been considerably less reliable in recent years.
So what does this all mean for this year? In the case of the Chicago Bears, it’s pretty easy. They got their start in the old NFL, and they currently reside in the modern-day NFC. So if they win, legend has it that we’ll experience a bull market. But it’s not so clear in the case of the Indianapolis Colts… The original Colts team actually started out in the All-America Football Conference (AAFC) in 1946 as the Miami Seahawks. They moved to Baltimore and adopted their new moniker just a year later, and in 1950 they joined the NFL. They folded after that season, however, and didn’t re-emerge until 1953 when a Baltimore based group took over the remains of the old Dallas Texans. It wasn’t until 1970 that the Colts (along with the Steelers and Browns) switched from the old NFL to the AFC during the NFL/AFL merger.
Hmmm… Even though they currently reside in the AFC, the Colts technically hail from the old NFL. In the context of the Super Bowl Indicator, this means that if the Colts win, we’re due for a bull market. So it’s literally a win-win situation — there should be a bull market regardless of the outcome of the Super Bowl.
Then again, no matter what happens, a team from the old NFL will lose… Does that mean we’re in for a bear market either way? Or maybe current affiliations trump all else in cases such as these. In that case, a Bears victory would signal a coming bull market, whereas a Colts victory would signal a looming bear market. Aye yae yae! Who can keep track?
Anyway, this was all just a long preamble to a poll on who you think will win the Super Bowl this year — the Colts or the Bears? Just in case you’re sitting on the fence, here’s a random bit of trivia for you: The Colts were the first NFL team to have cheerleaders.
As always, feel free to liven things up by leaving a comments.
Note: If the poll doesn’t work properly in the RSS feed you’ll have to click through. Sorry.
Published on January 22nd, 2007 - 10 Comments
Filed under: Polls, Saving & Investing
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About the author: Nickel is the founder and editor-in-chief of this site. He's a thirty-something family man who has been writing about personal finance since 2005, and guess what? He's on Twitter!
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If the bears win we have a bull market? Let’s just hope so because writers will have fun w/ that line again and again and again.
Comment by Jesse — Jan 22nd 2007 @ 7:56 amYeah, that’s a funny twist, isn’t it?
I do not think that the Bears would have been able to beat the Patriots or the Colts. I am fully expecting that the Indy/NE game is going to have been way more exciting to watch than the NFC championship game was or the SuperBowl will be.
Comment by Blaine Moore — Jan 22nd 2007 @ 9:21 amI don’t think it will be Payton’s year, although he’s a better QB than RG and he did have a great game (2nd half) against the Pats.
Comment by Debt Free — Jan 23rd 2007 @ 9:20 amIt is Payton’s time.
Comment by Erich — Jan 23rd 2007 @ 10:40 amDaaaaaa Bearssssss!
I don’t base my investments on the superbowl outcome, or even bet on it, or even watch the game…but I’m still calling it for Chicago.
Comment by Matt — Jan 25th 2007 @ 12:45 amWhere’s the fun in that, Matt?
Comment by Blaine Moore — Jan 26th 2007 @ 10:41 amThis is such a silly debate.
Since both teams are from the old NFL, it is obvious that one will lose and one will win.
It is CLEAR that the market will stay exact flat. SHEESH.
Comment by William Wallets — Jan 26th 2007 @ 10:47 amThat’s an EXCELLENT point, William.
there is no contest the bears will kill it all..i have all my money on them
Comment by tim j — Feb 4th 2007 @ 6:14 pm