Comments on: When Will the Recession End?

By: Dodgeblogium » May Day BoMS

Dodgeblogium » May Day BoMS — Mon, 04 May 2009 00:46:44 +0000

[...] presents When Will the Recession End? posted at [...]

By: The BoBo Carnival of Politics - March 8, 2009 Edition | The BoBo Files

The BoBo Carnival of Politics - March 8, 2009 Edition | The BoBo Files — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 05:26:16 +0000

[...] presents When Will the Recession End? posted at [...]

By: Andy

Andy — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 02:54:42 +0000

I think it will end sooner than people in and that we are in the worst of times right now.

The keys to recovery are confidence and time for markets and people to absorb the changes being put in place by governments all over the world. Once business and consumers are confident that things are getting better (or less worse), then they will start lending, borrowing and spending more freely again which will stimulate the local and global economies of the world.

By: 5 Fabulous Articles from February!!! | Semi Frugal Guy

5 Fabulous Articles from February!!! | Semi Frugal Guy — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 16:34:11 +0000

[...] When Will the Recession End? – Consumer confidence is stumbling, the stock market is tumbling, and unemployment is soaring. Weâ€™re now 14+ months into a severe recession, and the news just seems to keep getting worse. When will it all end? [...]

By: Have the Rules Changed? - debthurt.com

Have the Rules Changed? - debthurt.com — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 19:07:57 +0000

[...] by TREMEK on Feb.28, 2009, under General In response to my previous post about when the recession will end, a reader named Neal wondered aloud if we’re entering a new paradigm — one in which the [...]

By: DDFD at DivorcedDadFrugalDad

DDFD at DivorcedDadFrugalDad — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 13:32:29 +0000

My guess is 24 months and we have been in one about 12 months– so we are about halfway there in my opinion. But remember, in many ways a recession is a state of mind, and if you are a frugal person, it shouldn’t hurt too much– it is the over-extended that feel the pain most.

By: Daniel

Daniel — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 18:33:45 +0000

Neal, nickel said it. Expansions and contractions are a part of the normal economic cycle. There is nothing to suggest that this cycle is any different from any other.

By: nickel

nickel — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 18:32:35 +0000

Neal: People asked the same question as we approached the pinnacle of the dot com boom, but the old rules ultimately held and things came crashing back to Earth.

By: Neal Frankle

Neal Frankle — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 18:30:48 +0000

Great post.

The question I ask is, are we in a new paradigm? We could always say that the market will do this or that based on history. But based on what is going on now and the conditions we are in, is that history valuable?

By: My Life ROI

My Life ROI — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 06:16:11 +0000

Thomas –

Definitely. Unemployment is just one of the many predictors of a possible oncoming recession. But in no way would I ever use that figure as evidence of a recession….

MLR

By: thomas

thomas — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 04:26:09 +0000

it’s GDP, not unemployment. I hate when people try to come up with new ways to spin stuff (ie “core” inflation). As an Econ major, it bugs the crap out of me.

This recession will end soon enough, however the boom will be short lived as more and more of the current policies unfold and take over.

By: Chris

Chris — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 03:08:19 +0000

Very few of the “leading economists” even saw any of this mess coming. I put zero stock in what any of them have to say.

By: My Life ROI

My Life ROI — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 01:05:02 +0000

If these guys were that good at forecasting they would be incredibly rich relaxing on the beach drinking cuba libres..

By: Ray

Ray — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 19:19:54 +0000

I agree that media makes things a lot worse than it really is and causes consumer to worry even more hence lowering consumer confidence and making things worse…….I am not a big believer in economists forecast.

By: Daniel

Daniel — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 18:44:02 +0000

Mike, I’m not saying that they shouldn’t report what’s happening, just that they shouldn’t be putting such a “Debbie Downer” spin on every piece of financial news. The facts themselves are bad enough without embellishment.

By: Mike J

Mike J — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 18:38:09 +0000

Does the recession end when the depression begins?

Daniel: if you never go to the doctor, does that mean you’ll never be sick? The media report (loosely) what the news is. The DJIA can indeed reach 0. That outcome has a non-zero probability. It is highly improbable, yes.

How about this for reality check: people began defaulting on mortgages BEFORE the economy turned. On a total dollar volume basis, we have another ’subprime’ to get through in 2010-11 in the form of Alt-A/OptionARM/NegAm resets and (more importantly) recasts.

In other less-than-stellar news, DollarSavingsDirect cut their APY AGAIN to 2.65% — I gave up and moved my total balance to my rewards checking at 5.01%. Ugh. I’m such a Debbie Downer today . . .

-Mike J

By: Daniel

Daniel — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 16:38:05 +0000

I think it’s pretty clear we’re in a bad situation, but I also think that the portrayal by major media outlets, and the rhetoric of our president (where did the “hope” go??) are really not helping matters.

I really wish the media would quit reporting doom & gloom – maybe that would help with some of the needed reality checks. For example, the DOW can never reach 0, yet some people believe that is possible.