2013 Stock Market Predictions
Last year I asked for 2012 stock market predictions. At the time, the market (as measure by the S&P 500) had been almost perfectly flat during during the preceding year. In fact, it opened 2011 at 1257.64 and, despite many gyrations, closing at 1257.60 on the last day of the year.
Based on the poll results, ca. 25% of respondents predicted the market would be down, about 8% predicted a flat market, and the remainder (ca. two-thirds) predicted an increase. Well, the results are now in.
The market (again, as measured by the S&P 500) went from 1257.60 to 1426.19 during 2012 — a 13.4% increase. While the majority got the overall answer right (i.e., it went up) only 11% picked the right bin (10-15% increase).
With that as a backdrop, I thought it would be fun to run a similar poll for 2013. So here it is…
If you’d like to make a guess as to the specific closing price at the end of 2013, please do so in the comments section (but please also select a poll choice). You won’t win anything but bragging rights if you get it right, but hey…
Bragging is kinda fun.
Note: E-mail and RSS subscribers may need to click through for the poll to work.
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Modified on January 12th, 2013 - 7 Comments
Filed under: Saving & Investing
About the author: Nickel is the founder and editor-in-chief of this site. He's a thirty-something family man who has been writing about personal finance since 2005, and guess what? He's on Twitter!
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January 2nd, 2013 at 11:10 pm
S&P on 12/31/2013 = 1515.86
January 3rd, 2013 at 1:17 pm
Pluck-from-air? Let’s go with 1583 on 12/31/13. $85B/month has to end up somewhere!
January 3rd, 2013 at 3:22 pm
1310
January 4th, 2013 at 2:41 pm
I think it will go up by a 5-10%. The eurozone news are not so worrying as they used to be and investors seem more confident (at least this is the impression that I have!).
January 4th, 2013 at 4:47 pm
The P/E ratio is too high for most stocks, so I expect a downturn.
January 4th, 2013 at 5:45 pm
Not only are we overvalued, it’s the first year after a presidential election- typically the worst year of all. I think we rally a little bit early but have a legitimate correction later in the year, ultimately giving up most of the 2012 gains. 1350 at year end.
January 7th, 2013 at 5:17 pm
I think the 2% payroll tax holiday expiration will have a larger negative impact than most people expect. QE will continue to be a non-factor, but will spook the markets when it ends. Raising taxes on the wealthy doesn’t help either, but since it hits such a small percentage of GDP, it will not be much of a factor. All that being said, I predict the S&P closes at 1475.