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Worst-case-scenario playbook

Written by Jeffrey Steele - 2 Comments

This is the time of year when I annually confer with my financial adviser. As I drove to meet him in his office a couple weeks ago, I had reason to expect we’d both be in jovial moods. The stock market’s performance over the past year has been stellar, after all, and my account has tallied corresponding gains.

But as we talked, I was quickly reacquainted with reality. His role is not to be jovial or complacent. A big part of his role, as far as I can discern, is to remind me to stay on the straight and narrow with my financial goals. So after noting I’ve done a good job accumulating a nest egg, he figuratively splashed ice water in my face. “Consider what would happen if you had to retire today on what you’ve got,” he noted with admirable sternness. “You wouldn’t be living very lavishly.”

Ouch. That hurt. But then, what could I have expected him to say? “You’ve got a nice chunk of change there, so withdraw all of it, jet off to Monte Carlo and bet it all on black at the glittering casino’s spinning roulette wheel”?

From bad to worst

The advice I’ve garnered from my adviser since Day One has been along the same strict, flinty and severe lines. All words of wisdom are geared to reminding me of the worst-case scenario, and enabling me to ride out such a circumstance.

Disability insurance, long-term-care insurance, powers of attorney for health care and finances and a complete estate plan have all been advanced. And those have merely been the warm-up acts for the headliner, a disciplined, tax-advantaged retirement savings plan. That’s what a financial adviser is for.

But most Americans don’t have financial advisers. And that may be part of the reason many dwell on too rosy a vision of the future instead of a more realistic view, the kind that usually leads to more conscientious money management.

Want an example? I happen to have one right here. Thirty years ago I worked down the hall at an advertising agency from a petite young art director. Then in her late 20s, she was all about capturing creative awards and blowing her pay at as many dazzling new nightspots as she could fit into her schedule.

She wasn’t the type to dwell much on preparing for her financial future. Why should she? She was young, talented, had a track record of success, and could assume many facets of the classic American Dream would be hers in time.

Eventually, she honed a bit of financial discipline, landed a high-yield savings account and a few of the best credit cards and started banking some savings. Over time, her cash reserves surged into the low six-figure range, and she bought a condo. But by then, she was in her 40s, and the advertising industry isn’t always kind to those who’ve piled up birthdays. She lost her job.

She was able to freelance for a while, which kept her nest egg from being pared too severely. But then the freelance dried up. So she invested in courses to become a pastry chef. That turned out to be not nearly as lucrative as ad work, and the job security was just as dicey. She lost her job, or quit, and went back to freelance art direction. That proved as elusive as before.

Today, as she hurtles headlong toward 60, her savings are gone, as are her prospects of landing another advertising job. She works part-time in food service for near minimum wage, for a boss about the same age as she was when first I met her. It also looks like she will have to sell her home. The future? I hear she may move back to her East Coast hometown and settle in with her surviving parent at the old house she grew up in, before she embarked on a 40-year journey of discovery only to find that worst-case scenarios can actually occur.

Not enough dough

It’s a story as sad as it is true, but it’s hardly unique. I’ve heard a number of tales that followed similar plot lines. Starring in all of them were people who were once young, earning the kind of large salaries youth-oriented employers bestow and anticipating bright futures. Today, they are old or nearly so, and have no money. The years when they could have really built savings are behind them. All of them were folks who, like my ex-colleague the would-be pastry chef, used too much sugar and not enough dough in their flaky recipes for the future.

So what I’m urging is that if you’re just starting out in a career, forget about silver linings and start assembling what I call a “worst-case scenario playbook.” Here are some questions to ponder as you create that book.

  • Will Social Security and Medicare exist when you are eligible for them?
  • Will the taxes you face become larger, to fund spending on the large voting bloc of Boomers?
  • Will climate change’s impact on aging infrastructure hike your taxes?
  • What will swift technological change do to your job security?
  • Are you sure you won’t be supporting your parents in their old age?
  • Are you sure you won’t be supporting your children in their 20s and 30s?
  • What if your child is a special-needs child?
  • Are you covered in case of a medical crisis?
  • If you don’t marry, how will that affect your finances?
  • If you do marry and end up divorced, how will that affect your finances?

I’m not suggesting young folks become depressed about the future. By all means hope for blue skies. But plan for grey and overcast heavens, with a chance of a couple funnel clouds emerging and possibly even touching down.

When it comes to the size of your late-life finances, spending your career anticipating the worst can actually be for the best.

Published on April 9th, 2014
Modified on April 2nd, 2014 - 2 Comments
Filed under: Frugality, Planning, Retirement

About the author: is an independent writer in Chicago who has written over 2,000 articles appearing in publications such as Barron's, Boston Globe, Chicago Sun-Times, LA Times, and more.

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2 Responses to “Worst-case-scenario playbook”

  1. 1
    mjs Says:

    Our only worked in advertising and still does lots of work for them, she is an independent contractor but has 2 to 3 accounts that support her, she has an English degree..she has saved since her childhood never touching it at all, an inheritance went straight to an account on her 30th birthday never touched not a big investment slowly it accrures. Never married she lives like a hippie in NYC and does well, can travel on the one companies dime (film company) watches for every break she can get..She makes her own clothes, cooks for herself, sews everything, can make what she needs, lives in an apt. that our relative owns he keeps the rent really low…She has a cat, that is her only expense, no car..travels for her work, they pay the airline, hotels, she rarely goes out to eat, she can make food in her hotel she is rare for her age under 37 but will be soon at the end of the year 37..She figures she will be single and the money she has saved and saves will serve her well she has diversified some of her stocks, she doesn’t keep everything in one pot is her opinion, she was not a finance major or accountant but her dear friends are and they advise her wisely, single men and single women who have had trust funds all their lives but were expected to work like hell, she understood their work ethic from a child..She doesn’t mind living alone and to tell the truth many of her married friends ask her for help when the babydolls arrive, living in NYC is not for the faint of heart at all..She doesn’t understand people who don’t plan at all and spoil the babies like crazy only to tell her they are not saving for their college educations, we saved like crazy for her she graduated from high school and junior college the same week, went off to a fine university to work for the president of the college for nearly $18.50 an hour only to receive a huge amount to fund her and many other people’s college she still worked and kept the money bequeathing it to other young ladies who had dads and moms that worked like we did like crazy many got their college degrees from our daughter’s amazing college bequeathment! She knows what it means to someone to have a college degree and always knew money has never grown on trees, her other friends were biology and sea biology majors we live near the sea in the pacific northwest, she is the jewel of our lives and always states you don’t have to worry in retirement I got you covered…can you imagine?!!! We are semi retired, I work, the hubs enjoys his hard earned relaxation and enjoyment, I work non-profit for people who need food and housing, it doesn’t pay much but helps a lot of people to eat and not live in cars, etc. I can sleep well at night helping human beings who are not I the Loop so to speak and I think it is ridiculous not to help our fellow man on this terrestrial and truly believe that we are all the family of mankind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11

  2. 2
    Holly Murs Says:

    These are great points, Jeffrey. Not planning for these possibilities is the common pitfalls of most people. This is a very insightful post so we featured it in one of our Weekly Digests. You can read it here http://www.ltcoptions.com/week.....-scenario/. Thanks and good luck with your financial goals.

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