Just over a week ago, USA Today ran an interesting piece on where consumers plan on spending their economic stimulus tax rebate. They also compared it to how people actually spent their rebates back in 2001.

For starters, this is how people say they’ll be spending their current rebate:

23.3% - Keep in savings account
21.4% - Apply to credit card bills
6.5% - Car payment
5.1% - Home repair
5.1% - Gas/energy bills
4.2% - Buy things for the house
3.7% - Small daily expenses
2.3% - Buy clothes for kids
1.9% - Buy food/groceries
1.4% - Buy clothes for self/spouse
1.4% - Buy consumer electronics
1.4% - Apply to mortgage payment

From an economic standpoint, that doesn’t sound very stimulating.

But wait… What can history teach us?

Here’s a look at how people actually spent their rebates that last time around. The percentages were expressed in non-standard way, so I’ve just ranked them from greatest to smallest:

1. Movies
2. Computers
3. Drugs/sundries
4. Books
5. Women’s clothing
6. Apparel (presumably not including women’s clothing)
7. Electronics (presumably not including computers)
8. Kitchen appliances
9. Restaurant meals
10. Toys

Hmmm… That’s more like it.

Rampant consumerism, just like the bigwigs in Washington envisioned it.

While we haven’t officially in a recession, we’re still standing on pretty shaky economic ground. As such, I thought I’d post a recent list of the best careers to have in a recession from Money Magazine. In general terms, this list reflects the careers with the best combination of pay and expected growth rate over the next decade.

1. Financial adviser - 47% growth rate - $74,000 median income
2. Software program manager - 29% growth rate - $103,000 median income
3. Database administrator - 29% growth rate - $77,000 median income
4. Physical therapist - 27% growth rate - $67,000 median income
5. Physician’s assistant - 25% growth rate - $84,000 median income
6. Environmental specialist - 25% growth rate - $53,000 median income
7. Hydrologist - 24% growth rate - $59,600 median income
8. College professor - 23% growth rate - $79,000 median income
9. Certified public accountant - 18% growth rate - $64,000 median income
10. Teacher - 12% growth rate - $48,000 median income

Looking at the list, it’s largely comprised of white collar service-type postitions, presumably in response to a growing (and aging) population. Honestly, I was a bit surprised that there weren’t more medical professions on the list — what about doctors and/or registered nurses? I would think that those that specialize in non-elective procedures would fare quite well in an economic downturn. Yes, they’re getting squeezed by insurance companies, but people aren’t going to stop needing medical care.

According to former chairman of the Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan, the U.S. economy has descended into a recession. While we still haven’t seen a decline in our gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters (this is the definition of a recession), Greenspan argued that:

“Consumers are beginning to shrink in, the automobile markets are beginning to contract, production is beginning to ease, and we are in the throes of recession.”

But, according to Greenspan, none of the current woes are his fault:

“I have no regrets on any of the Federal Reserve policies that we initiated back then, because I think they were very professionally done.”

He went on to argue that the economy won’t stabilize until the housing market recovers, and that federal intervention will be required to speed that process along, much like what happened during the resolution of the savings and loan crisis during the 1980s.

[Source: USA Today]

I hate to end the week on a down note, but… According to the American Bankers Association (ABA), late payments on consumer loans increased to 2.65% during the fourth quarter of 2007 (the most recent quarter for which data are available).

This is an 8.6% increase over the preceding quarter, and is the highest consumer loan delinquency rate since the first quarter of 1992, when the U.S. economy had just emerged from a recession. Credit card delinquencies are also on the rise, with a 4.4% delinquency rate in the fourth quarter of 2007. It remains to be seen how bad things will get before we turn the corner.

As an aside… Given the rising tide of loan defaults, I find it amusing (and more than a bit ironic) that the web address for the ABA’s homepage ends with /default.htm — it sure seems like they could’ve picked a better name for that file.

The non-partisan taxpayer watchdog group Citizens Against Government Waste (CAGW) has released the 2008 edition of their “Congressional Pig Book,” which is a compendium of recent pork-barrel spending by our beloved U.S. Congress. [more]

Finally, some positive news on the economic front… According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales rose in February for the first time in six months. The downside is that the 2.9% increase in sales was accompanied by a continued fall in prices. In fact, the median price tumbled by the largest amount on record during February. For what it’s worth, experts are still predicting that the real estate market won’t bottom out until later this year.

Update: They’ve decided to start making payments early.

Yesterday I noted that I had received the official notification letter related to the tax stimulus rebate checks. In that letter, the IRS noted that they would start sending checks in May. The IRS has, however, since come out with official guidance on when you can expect your rebate, as well as how to get it sooner.

As it turns out, there are actually two different schedules… One for those using direct deposit, and another for those who will be receiving a paper check. Both schedules are based on the last two digits of your social security number, though the direct deposit schedule gets the money in your hands up to six weeks sooner. [more]

For what it’s worth, I just received notification of the Economic Stimulus Tax Rebate checks. This is the same mailing that is reported to have cost the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) nearly $42 million to send out. While this pales in comparison to the $168 billion rebate program, it’s still a ton of money (more accurately, it’s 42 metric tons). So what did the IRS have to say for themselves? Read on to find out… [more]

According to a recent blurb from Consumer Reports, your cost of living might be increasing faster than government inflation statistics seem to indicate. Based on official numbers, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.1% from December 2006-December 2007. Not surprisingly, the numbers vary substantially across categories. Indeed, gas was up 29.6%, heating oil was up 28.3%, and public transportation was up 7.2%. Grocery prices were also up 5.6%, with dairy leading the way at 13.4%. The problem here is that gas and groceries are omitted from the so-called “core inflation rate,” which is typically calculated by starting with the CPI and then excluding certain categories — including gas and groceries!

In case you haven’t heard, the so-called economic stimulus package (including the ever-popular tax rebate) has now been signed into law by President Bush. Referring to the stimulus package as “a booster shot for our economy,” he remarked that “We have come together on a single mission and that is to put the peoples’ interests first.”

In other news… Congress was tied up much of the day with far more important matters, as they continued their investigation into the use of performancing enhancing drugs in baseball.